Stricter Underwriting is Here – Industrial Policy is a New Catalyst

Stricter Underwriting is Here – Industrial Policy is a New Catalyst

For the past several years, and particularly during the COVID-19 Period, conventional underwriting took a back seat to momentum. No one’s pro-forma predicted the incredible rent growth over this period. Low interest rates and shortage of product drove prices higher. Industrial rents doubled in two years. Underwriting was limited to the simple and liberal measurement of Net Rent/Purchase Price = Rate of Return. Any return higher than treasury rates signaled a buy. It was the period of “Search for Yield”.

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Recent Observations: Real Estate Trends

Recent Observations: Real Estate Trends

postcard with SQFT text

Observations of Industrial Real Estate Trends

Real Estate Trends – The Good

Intense industrial real estate trends and conditions are diminishing. There are fewer container ships waiting to unload. The cost to ship a container from Shanghai to Los Angeles is 30% lower from its high. Building rents are still increasing but the doubling during the Covid-19 period was an aberration. While signs of a hyper-market are departing, a strong industrial market remains. There is a deficit of available space, strong corporate demand to improve supply chains and manufacturing resiliency, e-commerce, and high investment flow. Rent surges will continue with holiday stocking schedules starting in the Summer and again later in the year when China re-opens from its Covid-19 lockdown.
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2022 Continues – Severe Space Shortages

2022 Continues – Severe Space Shortages

potential 240,000 square foot lease deal near LAX

Acute space shortages are national news. Not only here in Los Angeles, where it’s about the worst, but all over the United States. Many tenants are being caught short and others are taking space far in advance, at greater amounts, and at much higher cost. Price bidding leads landlords to weigh credit, use, and history. Credit is the most important enhancement because it notably increases the value of buildings. Larger landlords also favor tenants that will lease multiple buildings across their national holdings.
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2021 Remains an Unbalanced Industrial Market

2021 Remains an Unbalanced Industrial Market

The industrial property business has grown from a real estate niche serving mostly large corporations and owner/users to a favored investment of large institutions. The rise coincided with the great manufacturing upheaval of shuttered plants as companies shifted production offshore. Goods return in containerized shipments and begat the new industry of logistics. The result was increased liquidity of both goods and capital. A situation that is ideal for warehouse development and investment. Today’s industrial marketplace is made up of global and national 3pls, shipping companies, e-commerce, and on the capital side, Industrial REITS, large investment funds, and a handful of developers. The Covid Supply Chain phenomena and an increase in tariffs has compounded an already unbalanced space market to acute levels
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Commentary on Industrial Markets

Commentary on Industrial Markets

Week of June 25 – Need For Space

The industrial market during the Covid-19 period, now edging back to normality, is a lesson on disruption. The most visible example are container ships backed into the sea and unable to unload goods because there is not enough dock space available at the ports. It is the same at warehouses and container yards: too many products and not enough space.
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